Consumer appraisal of the economic situation in Kazakhstan

International company for marketing research and consulting services ACT Kazakhstan (Analysis & Consulting Team) conducted the study on the topic “Study of consumer attitudes among the population of Kazakhstan.”

Based on the results of the study, the Index of Consumer Perception of the economic conditions (CPI), and Consumer Optimism Index (COI) were calculated.

Consumer Perception Index (CPI) is a composite indicator of the state of national economy based on population survey. This index comprehensively assesses public perceptions in relation to the national economy, as well as the personal financial situation of the consumers.

Practical application of index measuring results is wide and includes the understanding of consumers’ sentiments, their buying intentions. The results allow the business to base its plans for production, import, sales, marketing and advertising.

CPI is calculated based on four questions as the difference in percentages of negative and positive opinions and can range from minus 1 to plus 1.

According to the survey for Q1’2016, CPI was equal to 0.03. It is close to the borderline value of the scale. Negative values would indicate the predominance of negative assessments in the society.

Such a suspicious attitude towards the economic situation is evidenced by repeated devaluations of Tenge, in the specific period – waiting for the elections of Majilis of the Parliament, negative development of the situation after the elections – another wave of devaluation, price rises.

Consumer Perceptions Index is the actual perception of the current situation by the consumers of economic, business and personal welfare. The questions which are the basis for the calculation of the index referred to the assessment of current situation at the moment of survey – Q1’2016.

According to the results of the first half of 2016, most of Kazakhstani citizens (54%) negatively assess the state of the national economy (rather poor – 33%, poor – 21%).  42% of respondents have positively assessed the state of the national economy (excellent – 2%, good – 40%).

In terms of age groups, people aged 35 to 44 were more negative about the state of the national economy; while people aged 18 to 25 were less negative.

The respondents were more positive about the state of business in the country: 51% of the respondents have assessed the state of business in the current period as excellent or good. People aged 18 to 25 were most positive. Rather, it is due to the fact that respondents from this group have not yet directly encountered business therefore they have certain positive perceptions about the well-being of business in the country.

65% of respondents assessed their financial situation as excellent or good (4% and 61%, respectively). In terms of age groups, most of the respondents from all age groups have assessed their financial situation as good or excellent. Still, young people aged 18 to 25 most positively assessed their financial situation. Many respondents from this age group are still students, were on the provision of parents and did not have their own families, therefore their perceptions were so positive. More than 40% of the respondents over 35 years assessed their financial situation as rather bad or bad.

Taking into account the current state of the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan and personal incomes, more than half (57%) of the respondents noted that it was not the right time for major purchases like large household appliances (TV, refrigerator, washing machine, etc.). By age groups, the respondents aged 34 to 44 were mostly pessimistic about making purchases in the current period.  It should be noted that in terms of gender women (60%) were mostly negative vs. 54% of men.

The Consumer Optimism Index (COI) is a composite indicator reflecting consumers’ views on the future, assessment of prospects in the national economy, business and personal financial situation.

COI was above the average – 0.75. The index value varies from 0 to 1. Such value of COI indicates positive public expectations of the future. Mostly positive expectations are common to all people in the assessment of the future, regardless of the perception of the current situation.

 

When assessing the nearest future, 41% of the respondents believe that the state of national economy will remain stable, more than third of the respondents (34%) expect it to improve. Thus, in total 75% of the respondents do not expect deterioration of the situation in the economy of Kazakhstan in six months.

It is interesting that respondents in the age category from 45 to 65 years turned out to be more positive in the projections (39% expect an improvement). The youngest respondents (aged 18 to 25) are mostly inclined to believe that the situation in the economy will be stable.

78% of respondents are sure that the state of business in the Republic of Kazakhstan in six months will at least not worsen (31% believe that the situation of business in the Republic of Kazakhstan in 6 months will improve, 47% – that it will remain the same as of the moment of the survey (March 2016)). Younger people aged 18 to 25 are more optimistic in their projections. People over 35 years are less optimistic regarding the improvement of the state of business in the RK.

The people were mostly optimistic about their financial position: 40% of respondents are confident that in 6 months their financial situation will improve, and 49% – will not change. Only 6% of the respondents expect a worsening of their financial situation. Younger people aged 18 to 25 are again more optimistic with respect to changes in the financial situation for the better – 53% of the respondents from this group expect an improvement in their financial situation.

The survey was conducted in March 2016.

The sample size was 822 respondents.

The type of sample – quota sample.

Geography of the study – 16 cities of Kazakhstan.

 

 

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